Multi-Scenario National Territorial Space Pattern Simulation and Projection Model

Sub-project of the National Key R&D Programme (2022-2025), 2022YFC3800800, Completed

Introduction: Sub-project ‘Multi-Scenario National Territorial Space Pattern Simulation and Projection Model’ under the National Key R&D Programme ‘Theory and Methods for National Territorial Space Optimisation and System Regulation’, within the project ‘Key Technologies for Multi-Objective Intelligent Diagnosis and Pattern Optimisation of National Territorial Space’. Based on a cognitive model of form-flow element coupling, this sub-project analyses the spatio-temporal characteristics of form-flow elements and establishes a feature mapping library from flow elements (human flow, logistics, information flow, physical flows, biological flows, etc.) to form elements (land, buildings, resources, environment, etc.). It dissects the spatial interaction processes between natural biophysical processes and information/socioeconomic dynamics, constructing attraction and distance decay models for natural and socioeconomic systems. For continuous permeation interactions, it establishes a cellular automaton model based on surface processes; for long-range propagation interactions, it develops an agent-based model (ABM). Coupling the above models to establish a comprehensive spatial interaction model for multi-scale, multi-type flow elements. Utilising the form-flow characteristic mapping library, present interaction impacts in the form of pattern dynamics. Based on priority orientations for national territorial space protection and development, define multiple scenario characteristics for territorial spatial pattern evolution. Combine these with various policy regulation scenarios to simulate and model the evolution and updating process of territorial spatial patterns, thereby constructing a quantitative simulation and projection model for national territorial spatial patterns.